This executive summary lays out highlights from the report From Rocks to Resilience: Securing Critical Mineral Supply Chains written by Max Bell School Master of Public Policy students Adam MacKay, Maheep Sandhu, Madina Shahab, and Carter Wynne as part of the 2026 Policy Lab.
Access the summary and presentation below, and read their full report here.
Governments around the world are racing to secure critical mineral supply chains as a core priority of their economic and national security strategies. These minerals are the foundational inputs of the energy transition and the defence industries that depend on them, from electric-vehicle batteries to satellites and computer chips. It was against this backdrop that the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies' Center for Canadian Studies posed a challenge to a team of policy researchers: How can Canadian and U.S. policies be strengthened to ensure secure and sustainable critical mineral supply chains for the energy transition and national security, in the context of broader geopolitical relationships?
This report seeks to answer that question. From Rocks to Resilience: Securing Critical Minerals Supply Chains was produced at 海角社区's Max Bell School of Public Policy, and was developed using horizontal literature reviews, expert interviews, and market analyses.
The Issue:
Critical mineral supply chains have become one of the most important arenas of strategic competition between the United States and China. The primary challenge to security of supply lies in the midstream: refineries, separators, smelters, and recycling plants where raw minerals are processed into usable inputs. China's dominant position in global processing gives it significant market influence, which it has used as leverage. While overproduction has driven down global prices for the electric technologies that help advance the energy transition, that same capacity allows China to shock foreign downstream production through export controls, or to depress commodity prices below the cost of production at will, forcing competitors to close and further concentrating supply. In response, Canada and the United States are seeking to advance industrial, security, and trade measures aimed at increasing domestic production and diversifying supply, including through collaborating via the Group of Seven (G7), the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Canada's Role and Opportunity:
Canada is well placed to drive that diversification. Canada holds some of the most significant mineral reserves on earth, it is home to the headquarters of nearly half of all publicly traded global mining firms, it has an abundance of clean and affordable power, and a unique set of global trade relationships. At the same time, innovative policymaking is required to successfully pursue this goal in tandem with Canada s mission to diversify its economic relationships beyond deeper integration with United States. Canada s greatest opportunity is to advance its own economic, security, and environmental interests through measures it controls, in a manner that advanced areas of shared geostrategic alignment with the United States and its other traditional allies.
Recommendations to the Government of Canada
The report advances a package of three mutually-reinforcing recommendations spanning industrial, security, and trade policy that would strengthen Canada's position in global midstream processing while advancing global diversification objectives. The report recommends that the Government of Canada:
- Use market-shaping tools to support domestic midstream processing and recycling. An integrated assessment framework would coordinate offtake agreements, price floors, and financing on a project and market basis, to derisk private capital and protect Canadian refineries and recycling plants from global coercion or shocks. This recommendation is designed to complement recent initiatives by the Government of Canada to deliver financing and public procurement tools, by leveraging case information to demonstrate that their integrated use is the most effective means to secure stability for domestic critical mineral firms.
- Reform the Investment Canada Act to leverage national security reviews of regulated mining companies domestically, and abroad to help diversify global midstream processing and anchor more facilities in Canada and partner jurisdictions. This means reforming the Investment Canada Act to cover offtake agreements, offering a pre-clearance pathway and trusted investor whitelist, along with developing a trigger mechanism for public co-financing of projects. This recommendation is designed to help strengthen the interoperability of Canada s financing, major projects, and security reviews.
- Establish a hemispheric channel for supply and processing cooperation on the margins of the Canada-Mercosur trade agreement. Latin America is home to a significant volume of current and future critical minerals production, in markets that complement and compete with Canadian production. By collaborating to exchange value-add supplies, Canada can secure complementary upstream supply from South American producers and build resilient, value-added hemispheric supply chains that reduce reliance on global bottlenecks. The recommendation leverages an existing direct trade instrument to develop a Canada Mercosur Critical Minerals Table for supply and processing collaboration (CMCMT)
Takeaway:
In a sector where mines, refineries, and recycling plants take years and decades to build, Canada cannot afford to wait. As demand for processed critical minerals grows, Canada can take its place in the global midstream to protect domestic security interests, contribute to the fight against climate change, and strengthen its sovereign power for generations to come.
Download the full version of this report here.
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